Key Takeaways

• A Cessation of Hostilities (CoH) between the Lebanese state and Israel came into effect on April 17, though Hezbollah and Israeli military actions have persisted in southern Lebanon. Ongoing hostilities and Israeli occupation have prevented hundreds of thousands of internally displaced persons (IDPs) from returning home, as Israeli forces continue their systematic destruction of housing and infrastructure south of the Litani River. 
• Following widespread bombing on April 8, including extensive strikes in municipal Beirut, the Lebanese and Israeli governments announced bilateral negotiations aimed at reaching a permanent ceasefire and disarming Hezbollah. For its part, Hezbollah has rejected these talks, insisting first on a complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanese territory, to be followed by a national dialogue on a national defense policy. 
• Returns of displaced populations remain constrained by widespread destruction of housing and the breakdown of essential services in conflict-affected areas. These include some 40,000 housing units that were damaged between March 2 and April 7, which caused a second wave of displacement.
• The education sector is gradually transitioning back toward normal operations that incorporate hybrid learning solutions. Progress in this area is hampered by the fact that hundreds of schools are still in use as shelters and by the closure of schools in southern Lebanon.
• On April 9, the Council of Ministers tasked the Lebanon Armed Forces (LAF) and security forces with reinforcing state control in Beirut and restricting the possession of weapons to official forces, a move contested by ministers affiliated with Hezbollah and the Amal Movement.
• Lebanon’s finance minister estimates that direct damages from both recent conflicts could reach as high as 18 billion US dollars (USD), triggering sharply negative gross domestic product (GDP) forecasts. Many sectors, including agriculture, tourism, and commerce, are suffering. The current account deficit is widening, and remittances are slowing, deepening dollar shortages, inflation, and unemployment.
• Concurrently, global crude oil prices are causing energy-intensive commodity prices to spike. In particular, private generator rates, which account for as much as 80% of electricity consumption, surged by 34%, doubling household bills. Transport and logistics costs also rose by up to 50%.

By Crisis Analytics Team, Mercy Corps Lebanon