Key Takeaways:
- The fall of the Assad regime has had negative security implications for Lebanon,
especially along the border. Cross-border clashes have broken out during Syrian military operations targeting alleged smugglers and Assad loyalists. While Lebanon and Syria have sought to contain the violence, additional limited clashes are likely. Renewed upheaval in Syria risks further destabilizing the border.
- A sustainable solution to the displacement of Syrian nationals in Lebanon is more likely now than prior to the fall of the Assad regime. Already, an estimated 292,500 Syrians have returned from neighboring countries since December 2024. According to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), approximately 355,000 Syrians in Lebanon intend to return in the coming year. However, significant challenges face Syrians seeking to return. According to UNHCR, “[…] many families have little shelter and few economic prospects,” and the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) has noted that “restoring water and electricity supply, among other basic services, remains challenging across Syria due to insecurity and infrastructure damage.”
- Despite this, some Lebanese politicians are engaging in a renewed push to forcibly return Syrian nationals to their home country. Forcible returns face significant political, security, economic, and logistical challenges.
- Notably, there has been a rapid influx of displaced person from Syria since the fall of the Assad regime, though far fewer than the total amount displaced throughout the Syrian Civil War. Some 90,000 people, including 20,000 Lebanese persons residing in Syria, have fled to northeast Lebanon from Syria since December 2024. Most of the newly displaced Syrian nationals fled to Lebanon over security concerns.
- Humanitarian aid organizations in Lebanon are contending with spending cuts following the January 20 United States (US) executive order suspending foreign assistance. The United Nations (UN) Lebanon Response Plan has raised only 10.17% of its target, further constraining aid operations.
- Lebanon’s economy has experienced limited spillover effects following the fall of the Assad regime. Lebanon claims that agricultural exports have slowed due to new Syrian fees and inspection protocols, while produce smuggling into Lebanon has reportedly surged, disrupting markets and undercutting local farmers. To date, there is no hard data on the scale of these alleged trends. The sector has already faced losses from the 2024 Lebanon War, and further trade barriers could severely impact rural economies, where agriculture drives 80% of local GDP.
- Lebanon and Syria’s economies have historically been heavily interconnected, with expansive trade and service flows. While many questions remain, the fall of the Assad regime and the potential lifting of sanctions regimes could present a path back to this previous dynamic, with positive implications for Lebanon’s economy. Lebanese businesses could benefit from a sustained lifting of international sanctions on Syria, including increased trade, energy, and reconstruction opportunities.
- Aid actors can play a critical role in mitigating the negative impacts of political
changes in Syria on Lebanon, as well as taking advantage of new opportunities to facilitate lasting solutions to humanitarian and development needs in both countries. A coordinated response is needed to address displacement and worsening humanitarian conditions, prioritize safe and voluntary returns, support livelihood programs, and strengthen legal services while scaling up emergency aid and host community support to reduce tensions. Long-term stability depends on crisis preparedness, economic resilience measures for Lebanese businesses and Syrian returnees, and market-based solutions to sustain local agriculture and mitigate the negative impacts of illicit trade.
By Crisis Analytics Team, Mercy Corps Lebanon
