October Crisis Update
Key Takeaways: Since October 8, Hezbollah and Israel have engaged in escalating tit-for-tat attacks along Lebanon’s southern border. Eleven civilians have been killed in the fighting and 31 others injured as of November 9. As of November 1, 25,708 individuals had been...
Podcast: Can the Middle East survive without Ukrainian wheat?
This first episode of The Crisis Analysis Podcast unpacks the potential impact of continued Black Sea escalations on food security in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). The discussion builds on a recent regional Crisis Analysis report examining the food security...
September Crisis Update
Key Takeaways: The caretaker cabinet submitted its final version of the 2023 draft budget to parliament and continued its review of the 2024 draft budget in September. The latest version of the 2024 draft budget includes a value-added tax increase from 11% to 12% and...
Night-time Light Reflectance: A New Economic Vulnerability Score (EVS) For Lebanon
Key Findings: LCAT produced the economic vulnerability score (EVS) indicator to identify pockets of vulnerability at the local level using data on changes in NLR concentration and fuel prices, which accounts for a relative lack of available data across most of...
August Crisis Update
Key Takeaways: Fighting between rival factions in the Ain el Hilweh Palestinian refugee camp killed 13 people and heavily damaged multiple neighborhoods in late July and early August. After the clashes subsided, the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine...
Night-time Light Reflectance: Potential Uses In Lebanon
Key Findings: NLR declined from late 2019 to early 2021 and accelerated after fuel subsidies were lifted in May 2021 because most of Lebanon heavily relies on diesel-powered electricity generators. NLR has declined in all qadas since late 2019, but qadas that receive...
July Crisis Update
Key Takeaways: Central Bank Vice Governor Wassim Mansouri was named acting Central Bank governor after the cabinet failed to select a successor to former Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh. Prior to taking on his new position, Mansouri and three other vice governors...
Food security in Lebanon following Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI)
While it remains unclear what impact Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) will have on Lebanon’s food security, even modestly dramatic scenarios demand serious attention from aid actors and policymakers alike. Combined with another...
Lebanese Remittances: A Household Analysis
Key Findings: Higher-income households receive remittances on a more regular basis. A mere 7% of respondents reporting a monthly income of less than LBP 5 million receive regular remittances, compared to almost 60% of those earning between LBP 20 million and LBP 25...
June Crisis Update
Key Takeaways: The Lebanese pound (LBP) parallel market exchange rate has been largely stable for three consecutive months and averaged LBP 93,500 per 1 US dollar (USD) in June. Daily average Sayrafa transactions increased in June compared to May, a key driver of LBP...
