Key Takeaways:
- The likelihood of a renewed US-Israeli campaign against Iran is increasing, raising concerns that widescale conflict could restart in Lebanon. Hezbollah has not announced whether it would support Iran militarily if such a campaign were to take place. Israeli officials have threatened major retaliation if Hezbollah targets Israeli forces, hinting that they may launch a broad ground offensive.
- The number of Israeli strikes on Lebanese territory declined in October compared to the previous month, and Hezbollah launched no attacks on Israeli forces. Despite the relative downtick in military action, Israeli forces continue to target southern Lebanon and occupy some 650 square kilometers of the country, areas from which most of the 330,000 internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Lebanon fled.
- Following the Internal Security Forces (ISF) seizure of over 700 kilograms of explosives belonging to Hezbollah, Justice Minister Adel Nassar asked the Cabinet to transfer the case from the Military Court to the Judicial Council. The Cabinet postponed ruling on the matter pending further investigation, and the Military Court indicted 13 people in relation to the seizure.
- In October, Hezbollah announced that it would initiate a cash assistance program offering up to 14,000 US dollars (USD) for families whose primary homes were destroyed or rendered uninhabitable during the 2026 War. The program was explicitly framed as a challenge to the government while its own reconstruction framework remains stalled. Hezbollah claims the payments will not be limited to its supporters, and has called on landlords and furniture dealers not to raise prices in response to the program.
- By supplementing public sector wages with a series of additional payments, more than half of the 2027 Draft Budget is earmarked for public sector remuneration. However, these payments could be cancelled or reduced, and even if fully applied, salaries remain at roughly one-third of pre-crisis value.
- President Joseph Aoun lodged an appeal with the Constitutional Council to challenge amendments to the Banking Resolution Law. The Court’s decision restored references to the Code of Money and Credit, a ruling that is likely to reignite the dispute between the Central Bank-aligned camp and International Monetary Fund (IMF)-aligned officials.
- On November 3, Électricité du Liban (EdL) began cutting service to some regional water establishments and other public institutions. The move followed the national electricity company’s late-October announcement that it would cut off electricity supply to state bodies that had not settled their outstanding invoices.
- Qatar has pledged to finance, implement, and operate a program to increase Lebanon’s electricity generating capacity. Implementing the program, the largest pledged foreign investment in the sector in years, is scheduled to take at least three years.
- The Council of Ministers adopted emergency measures to contain Tripoli’s waste crisis, which include reopening an existing landfill and commissioning the construction of a new one. The decision drew widespread criticism and legal challenges. Meanwhile, waste collection in central Lebanon is set to be handled by municipalities when current contracts expire on December 31. This places operational responsibility on municipalities before the revenues to sustain such operations are in place.
By Crisis Analytics Team, Mercy Corps Lebanon
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