Executive Summary:
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Lebanon faces the threat of worsening economic and humanitarian crises as the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah escalates. Since September 16, when Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government added the return of displaced residents to northern Israel as an official war aim, military operations have ramped up. Efforts to negotiate peace remain deadlocked. Israel has dismissed ceasefire proposals and is pushing for the enforcement of UN Resolutions 1701 and 1559, while Hezbollah continues its military operations, albeit within a limited scope.
This LCAT flash report explores two possible scenarios: 1) Continued ongoing strikes against Hezbollah, sparing critical infrastructure, and 2) A worse scenario involving a blockade and attacks on essential infrastructure, with severe economic and humanitarian impacts anticipated to last into 2025.
By Crisis Analytics Team, Mercy Corps Lebanon
