September Crisis Update

Key Takeaways:

• While the Council of Ministers’ approval of a confidential Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) plan to confiscate non-state arms – one reportedly without deadlines – has satisfied Hezbollah for the time being, the United States (US) has expressed growing frustration over a perceived lack of effort on disarmament. During September, Israel continued to target alleged Hezbollah operatives and infrastructure, carrying out 76 airstrikes compared to 71 the previous month. On September 18, Israel issued strike alerts for four southern Lebanese towns, its most widespread evacuation notices since the start of the Cessation of Hostilities (CoH) on November 27, 2024.

• The Council of Ministers approved the 2026 draft budget, which will now be sent to the parliament for amendments and ratification. The bill sets the budget at 5.65 billion US dollars (USD), an 18.2% increase over 2025.

• On September 12, the Central Bank released its first semiannual macroeconomic report. The Central Bank estimated Lebanon’s 2024 GDP at USD 28 billion, a 6.4% contraction compared to 2023.

• On September 13, the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) completed the fourth phase of the Palestinian camps disarmament plan in Ain el-Hilweh and Beddawi. The LAF only took possession of weapons belonging to Fatah, as Hamas and other factions have refused to take part in any disarmament plan not linked to broader reforms.

• The Ministry of Energy and Water approved plans for solar farms in the North, Mount Lebanon, and Bekaa to power over 22,000 homes and cut annual carbon emissions by 45,000 tons. The plan faces criticism over its economic feasibility and power transmission capacity due to Lebanon’s degraded electrical grid.

By Crisis Analytics Team, Mercy Corps Lebanon