Scenarios of Potential Escalations – Humanitarian and Development Implications for Lebanon

• Hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel have remained mostly contained after ten months, although there has been a steady rise in the pace and scope of cross-border exchanges. A dramatic escalation could have serious humanitarian and development ramifications for Lebanon. Since October 8, 2023, Israel’s bombardment has shifted from targeting rural and agricultural areas of southern Lebanon to towns and villages in the south and in the Bekaa Valley, damaging homes, stores, roads, and utilities. This LCAT thematic report examines three potential near- and medium-term scenarios, based on lessons learned from the 2006 Lebanon War and the present conflict in Gaza and southern Lebanon. These three scenarios can be summarized as follows:

• Continued fighting along the border and limited airstrikes elsewhere in Lebanon.

• Significant escalation in Israeli shelling of southern Lebanon and increased airstrikes elsewhere in the country, but short of a full war.

• Full-scale war affecting the whole of Lebanon as threatened by Israeli officials in recent months, and of greater intensity than the 2006 Lebanon War.

By Crisis Analytics Team, Mercy Corps Lebanon