Introduction:
Tensions have risen between the United States (US) and Iran, with Washington signaling that it could conduct military action in response to Tehran’s deadly crackdown on domestic protests. This Lebanese Crisis Analytics Team (LCAT) report presents three scenarios that map how escalations could unfold between the US and Iran, with a focus on the potential impact on Lebanon. The goal is to inform contingency and preparedness planning by humanitarian actors and other relevant stakeholders in Lebanon. This analysis complements LCAT’s December 19 report that analyzed scenarios for possible Israeli military escalation in Lebanon.
LCAT’s analysis considers three scenarios:
- Ongoing tensions between Tehran amid a US military buildup;
- Limited, one-off US strikes on Iran;
- Major military action against Iranian political, military, and security personnel and infrastructure
As events continue to unfold rapidly, LCAT is unable to assign likelihoods to any of these scenarios. Moreover, this analysis does not include a scenario in which the US takes no substantive action toward Iran, which would amount to a return to the status quo. LCAT also factors potential Israeli involvement within each scenario. Finally, LCAT’s analysis does not assess medium- to long-term outcomes of the scenarios; rather, it focuses on short-term dynamics.
By Crisis Analytics Team, Mercy Corps Lebanon
