Key Takeaways:
- The US-brokered cessation of hostilities (CoH) between Hezbollah and Israel came into effect on November 27, and the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) is deploying to southern Lebanon in coordination with the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL). Violence has not entirely abated, as the Israeli military has continued shelling, airstrikes, and border incursions, while Hezbollah targeted the Shebaa Farms with rockets on December 2.
- On December 4, caretaker Minister of Public Health Firass Abiad announced that 4,047 people have been killed and 16,638 injured in the cross-border conflict that began on October 8, 2023. The final death toll is expected to rise as the CoH only recently enabled emergency workers to begin retrieving bodies from beneath rubble in many areas of the country. Violence has also displaced nearly 900,000 people since October 8, 2023, with 578,641 internally displaced persons (IDPs) returning to their homes as of November 28.
- The public water and energy sectors are estimated to have incurred at least 500 million US dollars (USD) in losses since October 2023. Losses in the energy sector alone are estimated at over USD 300 million, primarily due to increased demand from IDPs, infrastructure damage, and revenue losses, while the water sector has sustained approximately USD 200 million in losses.
- On November 28, amid a new push to elect a president, the Lebanese Parliament extended the term of Army Commander-in-Chief Joseph Aoun and those of other senior security and intelligence officials. Under international pressure, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri has scheduled a January 9 electoral session to resolve the presidential stalemate.
- The World Bank estimates that Israeli military action has caused over USD 3.4 billion in damage to infrastructure and more than USD 5 billion in economic losses. Housing damage alone amounts to USD 2.8 billion, with Nabatieh suffering the highest losses (USD 1.5 billion). Extensive housing and infrastructure damage is expected to prolong the displacement crisis, as many returnees have lost their homes or hope to return to areas in which public infrastructure is non-functional.
- The latest Central Bank balance sheet revealed a falloff of approximately USD 110 million in Foreign Assets in November, coming on the heels of a USD 500 million drop from October to November. The supply of Lebanese Pounds (LBP) in the parallel market fell below LBP 50 trillion for the first time in the second half of 2024, reaching LBP 49.8 trillion in November.
By Crisis Analytics Team, Mercy Corps Lebanon
