January Crisis Update

Key Takeaways:

• Lebanon is approaching a critical juncture as the Council of Ministers pushes to expand disarmament north of the Litani River. While the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) completed this process south of the Litani, Hezbollah continues to reject nationwide disarmament, citing Israel’s ongoing military operations and occupation of Lebanese territory. Israel has intensified its strikes in areas slated for the second phase of disarmament, though large-scale escalation in the short term remains unlikely.  

• The Israeli military launched 138 airstrikes and 58 quadcopter attacks in January, the highest monthly total for each in a single month since the Cessation of Hostilities (CoH) came into effect on November 27, 2024. Israeli forces are increasingly targeting residential buildings, civilian infrastructure, construction equipment, and individuals allegedly linked to Hezbollah in areas beyond the immediate border zone. Israeli military action continues to stall reconstruction and deter resident returns; there were 64,417 internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Lebanon as of October 3, 2025.  

• Lebanon’s parliament passed the 2026 Budget Law on January 29. Forecast revenues are 20% higher compared to the previous budget, though critics point out that it does not contain significant reforms. Revenues will be largely allocated to current spending, with only 10-11% earmarked for long-term investments and recovery projects.  

• Severe storms in January laid bare infrastructure and flood-management failures in northern Lebanon, with the flooding of the Kabir River causing widespread damage and displacing vulnerable local communities. Flooding destroyed the Arida bridge, the only legal crossing with Syria in the north, which disrupted supply chains in the north and further marginalized the area. While the Ministry of Agriculture has ordered damage assessments and issued appeals for support, the destruction underscores the dangers posed by poorly maintained public infrastructure. 

• The Council of Ministers approved a plan to transfer Syrian inmates in Lebanese prisons to their home country in late January, the result of months of negotiations between Damascus and Beirut. Only days before the agreement was reached, Lebanese inmates at Roumieh prison went on a hunger strike, claiming the bilateral agreement was unfair to Lebanese prisoners amid overcrowding, poor medical care, and trial postponements. Families of Lebanese detainees warn that the protests may escalate in the near term if the state does not take swift action to address their grievances.   

By Crisis Analytics Team, Mercy Corps Lebanon