Key Takeaways:
- agreeing to the Cessation of Hostilities (CoH) on November 27, Israel has conducted extensive military operations across southern Lebanon, including over 88 artillery strikes, 92 airstrikes – 42 of which targeted areas north of the Litani River – and numerous small arms attacks. These actions have killed at least 36 and injured 49. Property destruction has also escalated, with Israeli forces demolishing neighborhoods in several southern Lebanese towns, including Kfar Kila and Naqoura. Lebanon has formally accused Israel of 816 violations of the CoH, including offensive military actions, airstrikes, and road blockages. Despite calls for withdrawal, Israeli troops remain in several areas and have deployed to strategic locations (such as Naqoura and the Wadi Saluki) as they continue their campaign to destroy alleged Hezbollah infrastructure.
- Israel has imposed a 7-kilometer-wide exclusion zone along Lebanon’s southern border, which blocks access to numerous towns and prevents some 65,000 internally displaced persons (IDPs) from returning home. Returning residents must contend with widespread property damage (nearly 100,000 housing units have reportedly been damaged or destroyed), disrupted services, and the threat of unexploded ordnance. The Lebanese government and Hezbollah have begun
to clear the rubble and assess the damage, but the scale of destruction presents significant longterm challenges.
- Since the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad’s government by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and allied forces on December 8, nearly 90,000 people, including 20,000 Lebanese citizens, have fled to Lebanon’s Baalbek-Hermel Governorate. Due to a shortage of public shelters, most displaced individuals are seeking informal shelter within local communities, with 17,000 in Baalbek alone relying on religious centers and relatives. Lebanon’s government has committed to aiding Lebanese returnees but refuses to establish new camps for Syrian refugees, some of whom have been detained and repatriated since December 8. Tensions along the Lebanese-Syrian border, including a January 3 exchange of fire that injured four Lebanese soldiers, are indicative of ongoing instability.
- On January 9, Lebanon’s 13th attempt to elect a president proved successful. Unlike the previous attempts, parliamentary quorum was maintained in the second round, during which Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) Commander-in-Chief Joseph Aoun received 99 votes. Opposition MPs argued that Aoun should not assume the office without amending Article 49 of the Constitution, which prohibits grade-one civil servants from assuming the presidency until two years after leaving their position.
- As of December 7, the telecommunications sector had incurred an estimated 117 million US dollars (USD) in conflict-related damage. While services have resumed in parts of southern Lebanon and the southern suburbs of Beirut, many regions are still contending with limited or no connectivity. Similarly, although the South Lebanon Water Establishment (SLWE) is working with the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) and the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) to restore water supply to southern towns, funding constraints and systemic challenges hinder progress, particularly given acute water shortages in the Mount Lebanon Governorate due to reduced rainfall. In the electricity sector, limited restoration of service in Nabatieh and Bint Jbeil highlights the sector’s chronic underperformance, with much of the population still reliant on private generators. Reconstruction efforts, including debris removal, are underway, though these measures are hampered by a lack of resources.
By Crisis Analytics Team, Mercy Corps Lebanon
