Overview:
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Israel’s ground invasion along Lebanon’s southern border has resulted in widespread property damage, much of it due to controlled demolitions, as part of an apparent attempt by Israel to establish a buffer zone. The ground campaign follows nearly one year of attritional fire targeting Lebanese villages and towns within five kilometers of the border. Israeli military action has precipitated mass displacement, and, despite a recently announced ceasefire, extensive property damage will continue to present a barrier to Lebanese internally displaced persons (IDPs) returning to their homes.
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Notably, the recent damage resulting from the Israeli invasion has also sharply increased the already high reconstruction and compensation bill for the Lebanese state, potential donor countries, and implementing agencies. Understanding the trend of residential property destruction – including its scale, geographical focus, and costs – is essential for any response planning in southern Lebanon, the Bekaa, and the southern suburbs of Beirut when the conflict ends. This is in addition to the direct and ongoing costs associated with supporting displaced and affected populations with basic needs assistance. Timely and accurate information on the scale and ongoing cost of these damages is essential for response actors and supporting donors to adequately plan and implement recovery activities, with a high likelihood of additional costs stemming from insufficient, poorly managed, or overly delayed recovery and reconstruction efforts. Given the high likelihood that funding levels will be, at least initially, insufficient to meet needs, accurate data on damages will be essential for effective prioritization and coordination of response activities.
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Taking this into account, the Mercy Corps Lebanon Crisis Analytics Team (LCAT) developed a satellite imagery analysis model to estimate property destruction levels in southern Lebanon, specifically in Bint Jbeil district. This district covers approximately one-third of the area to the south and east of the Litani river, where Israel is conducting heavy shelling and ground operations. At least 43.2% of the buildings in the district – which measures approximately 400 square kilometers – have been damaged or destroyed. LCAT also developed an approach to estimate compensation and reconstruction costs, which are projected to total at least USD 900 for Bint Jbeil alone million.
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LCAT used the models to analyze damage in four southern Lebanon towns located in Bint Jbeil district that incurred heavy damage. To complement these models, LCAT identified key infrastructure in the four selected towns, including civilian infrastructure damaged by shelling such as schools, municipal buildings, and pharmacies.
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In the coming weeks the LCAT aims to scale up these models to include all territory in southern Lebanon, Beirut, and the Bekaa that has been subject to heavy Israeli bombardment. The resulting estimates can then be combined with data on IDP movements in Lebanon, yielding a potentially valuable dataset to guide post-conflict reconstruction and returns.
By Crisis Analytics Team, Mercy Corps Lebanon
