Key Takeaways

• On June 3, following the fourth high-level trilateral meeting between Israeli, Lebanese, and US representatives, the US State Department released a statement declaring that “Israel and Lebanon agreed to the implementation of a ceasefire.” According to the statement, the Israeli and Lebanese sides discussed a security framework that would stipulate the disarmament of non-state groups and that “the ceasefire is contingent on a complete cessation of Hizbollah [sic] fire and the evacuation of all Hizbollah [sic] operatives from the South Litani Sector”. The situation remains fluid. Following the announcement, the Israeli military launched several attacks across southern Lebanon and in the Bekaa, and Hezbollah targeted Israeli forces in southern Lebanon. On June 4, Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem likened the Lebanese government’s adoption of the US announcement to “surrender”. 
• In late May, Israel announced an intensification of its military operations in Lebanon. Since May 25, Israel has conducted an average of 112 airstrikes per day, killing an average of 33 people daily, with most strikes targeting southern Lebanon and more limited targeting in Baalbek-Hermel and Western Bekaa. Israeli forces also renewed their ground offensive, with their troops advancing beyond the Litani River into the district of Nabatieh.
• Lebanon’s Foreign Ministry sent letters to the UN Secretary-General and President of the UN Security Council accusing Iran of violating Lebanese sovereignty by conducting joint operations with Hezbollah and of violating the Vienna Convention. The move was initially read as an assertive foreign policy stance, before being downplayed by the ministry as routine diplomatic correspondence, reflecting political caution over tensions with Tehran and their domestic implications.
• On May 9, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam led a ministerial delegation to Damascus for bilateral talks on border security, trade, and other areas of cooperation. Lebanon and Syria agreed to establish a Lebanese-Syrian Supreme Business Council and expedite the repatriation of Syrian inmates held in Lebanese prisons. Movement on these and other matters of mutual concern signals a gradual shift away from asymmetrical bilateral relations during the Assad regime era. 
• The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.04% in April, driven by higher fuel and shipping costs that are now affecting items like clothing, footwear, and accommodations. From January to May 2026, the price of 20 liters of petrol increased by 85.3%, food prices rose 7.9% nationally, and the overall CPI climbed by 10.1%.
• The conflict has displaced over 95% of agricultural households in southern Lebanon and similarly high shares of workers in local marketplaces. Outside areas directly targeted by Israeli fire and/or subject to forced evacuation orders, economic activity is also deteriorating: over three-quarters of businesses in these regions reported declining revenues, more than half reported losses, and many firms face higher operating costs, labor shortages, and transport and cash-flow constraints. Around one third of these businesses expect recovery will take more than six months.
• The government awarded a contract to Sky Lounge Services to refurbish and operate President René Moawad Airport in Qleiat, which has been closed for nearly a decade. This marks a step forward in reopening Lebanon’s second civilian airport and in efforts to diversify national transport infrastructure beyond Beirut. 
• In deciding to cancel intermediate certificate examinations and adopt a flexible baccalaureate framework, the Ministry of Education is seeking to preserve a certain continuity despite disruptions caused by war and displacement. However, student protests and criticism from educators have highlighted the challenge of applying uniform national examination policies amid increasingly unequal learning and security conditions across the country

By Crisis Analytics Team, Mercy Corps Lebanon