Key Takeaways

• Sustained Israeli strikes on bridges along the Litani River are progressively cutting off border regions in southern Lebanon. Some 150,000 people remain in increasingly isolated areas, with humanitarian access deteriorating while dependence on urgent aid increases. More airstrikes around heavily targeted areas like Nabatieh risk expanding the number of inaccessible areas.   
• Israeli forces are targeting healthcare infrastructure and personnel, as they did during the 66-Day War (September 23 to November 27, 2024). As of March 31, nine hospitals have been damaged and five forced to halt operations. Attacks on emergency responders have killed at least 46 emergency medical technicians (EMTs) and destroyed 48 ambulances.
• Lebanon’s consumer price index (CPI) rose 1.9% month-on-month in February. The increase was driven by transportation and food prices, reflecting Lent-related seasonal effects, anticipatory price hikes ahead of higher VAT and fees, and a new gasoline excise tax. Global fuel price shocks will likely drive up electricity, cooking, heating, and transport costs, with higher production and distribution expenses gradually passed on to consumers. Experts estimate that the fuel shock alone could add 8-10% to inflation.
• The conflict is driving a sharp contraction in gross domestic product (GDP), crippling tourism, causing agricultural losses, and disrupting services through damage to energy and digital infrastructure. The Central Bank is estimated to have lost around 1 billion US dollars (USD) in reserves (USD 212 million in foreign exchange and USD 797 million in gold valuation), highlighting the limited buffers available for a prolonged conflict. Mass displacement is distorting markets and accelerating inflation in host areas while destroying wages and assets for displaced households, pushing populations with almost no savings into adopting harmful coping strategies.
• Citing interference in internal affairs, Lebanon declared the Iranian Ambassador persona non grata on March 29, prompting a boycott of cabinet sessions by Hezbollah and Amal. The Ambassador has yet to depart Lebanon.
• On March 17, Lebanon began transferring Syrian prisoners to Syria under a bilateral agreement, with over 130 inmates repatriated in the first phase. This is expected to ease overcrowding, though it has triggered protests among Lebanese detainees calling for amnesty and reduced sentences.
• The Ministry of Public Health announced that it is providing full coverage for all wounded citizens in public hospitals and selected private facilities, including lump-sum support for non-hospitalized cases. The Ministry of Education is supporting displaced children through remote learning and by distributing education kits.
• The United Nations launched a USD 308.3 million Flash Appeal to support the government-led humanitarian response from March to May 2026, targeting up to 1 million people, with an estimated 1.3 million affected. As of March 26, 29% of the appeal has been funded. Operations have scaled up in coordination with the Ministry of Social Affairs, governorates, and municipalities, prioritizing protection, shelter, food, healthcare, and support for vulnerable populations, including those outside collective shelters.

By Crisis Analytics Team, Mercy Corps Lebanon