Introduction:
Hezbollah’s March 2 attack on Israel triggered a sharp Israeli military escalation in Lebanon, more than a year after the 66-Day War ended in late November 2024. The strikes have drawn the country into the rapidly unfolding regional conflict: Days earlier on February 28, the United States (US) and Israel launched a military campaign targeting Iran, killing the country’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in the opening salvo.
This Lebanese Crisis Analytics Team (LCAT) report offers analysis on key emerging dynamics of the current crisis and presents three brief scenarios of how escalations could unfold between Hezbollah and Israel amid the regional war. For each scenario, the report provides assessments of the potential severity of security, humanitarian, and economic impacts in Lebanon. It aims to inform contingency and preparedness planning by humanitarian actors and other relevant stakeholders in Lebanon. LCAT’s analysis considers three scenarios:
- Short-Term Escalation: A relatively short military conflict – lasting at most a month – that is resolved alongside, or shortly after, regional fighting involving Iran.
- Medium-Term Escalation: A lengthy military conflict – lasting two months or more – that could outlast a resolution to the regional conflict involving Iran.
- Major Escalation Amid Worsening Regional Conflict: A worst-case scenario of lengthy military conflict – lasting two months or more – that worsens amid an ongoing and escalating regional conflict.
Given the unfolding situation, LCAT cannot assign likelihoods to these scenarios. Instead, the analysis identifies potential triggers and barriers for each. The report focuses on short-to-medium term dynamics rather than long-term outcomes.
By Crisis Analytics Team, Mercy Corps Lebanon
