Key Takeaways:

– The Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) announced that it had completed the first phase of Hezbollah disarmament south of the Litani River, though prospects for countrywide disarmament are uncertain. Hezbollah continues to reject calls to hand over their arms under conditions favored by US and Israel, favoring instead a dialogue over a national defense strategy. Although newly launched US-mediated talks between Israeli and Lebanese civilian representatives offer a potential pathway for defusing tensions, they have gotten off to a faltering start. Meanwhile, Israel is expected to continue military action in Lebanon, amid concerns of escalation.

– Israel conducted 72 bombing raids targeting Lebanon in December, including 12 targeted assassinations, a modest decline compared to November. One of these claimed the life of an LAF soldier, who Israel alleged was working with Hezbollah, a claim the LAF denied.

– Having reached quorum for the first time in nearly three months, the Lebanese parliament passed seven laws, including two approving World Bank loans totaling some 500 million US dollars (USD). The first, for USD 250 million, will fund southern reconstruction through the Lebanon Emergency Assistance Project (LEAP) project, aimed at restoring essential services and infrastructure in areas most affected by Israeli military action. A second USD 258 million loan expands a water provisioning project in Beirut.

– Nearly 874,000 people in Lebanon face high acute food insecurity, a figure expected to climb to 961,000 by mid-2026 fueled by displacement pressures and economic instability. According to the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), most Lebanese residents experiencing “Crisis” (Phase 3) levels of food insecurity are in Akkar and Baalbek. However, displaced Syrian nationals are among the most affected by food insecurity, particularly post-2024 arrivals who are increasingly experiencing “Emergency” (Phase 4) conditions.

– The European Union (EU) released the first tranche of a 132-million-euro (EUR) security and stability aid package to Lebanon. This first batch of aid – totaling EUR 55 million – is aimed at bolstering Internal Security Forces operational capacity to counter organized crime, terrorism, and smuggling, as well as strengthening border security. 

Crisis Analytics Team, Mercy Corps Lebanon

    Download Report

    (PDF Size: 8.70 MB)