June Crisis Update

Key Takeaways:

• Throughout June, the Israeli military maintained the pace of its strikes in Lebanon aimed at dismantling Hezbollah’s military capacities, including during the June 13-24 conflict between Israel and Iran. On June 5, Israel launched its largest wave of strikes on the southern suburbs of Beirut since the Cessation of Hostilities (CoH) came into effect.

• Amid calls for the nationwide disarmament of Hezbollah, United States Envoy and Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack visited Lebanon, where he proposed a plan for the Lebanese government to assume control of the party’s weapons. The Lebanese government is expected to reply to the US proposal in early July. Hezbollah insists that disarmament only applies to the area south of the Litani river, where the LAF has already reportedly dismantled about 90% of the group’s sites.

• The European Commission named Lebanon a high-risk country for money laundering and terrorist funding, requiring enhanced due diligence mechanisms for financial transactions between European Union (EU) Member States and Lebanon. The classification could delay international transfers, potentially inhibiting the flow of EU aid and remittances.

• The Council of Ministers approved a minimum wage increase to 28 million Lebanese pounds (LBP) – equivalent to 312 US dollars (USD). The cabinet also increased the National Social Security Fund coverage ceiling to LBP 120 million.

• The World Bank will provide Lebanon with USD 250 million in financing to assist in infrastructure reconstruction and recovery efforts following the 2024 Israel-Hezbollah conflict. The funding is part of the USD 1 billion scalable World Bank “Lebanon Emergency Assistance Project”.

• The Directorate of General Security announced that persons displaced from Syria, both Syrian and Palestinian, will not be fined or banned from re-entry if they leave Lebanon through official border crossings between July 1 and September 30, 2025. Despite new Syrian government measures to facilitate returns, humanitarian organizations have cited several barriers to return, including security concerns and lack of housing.