May Crisis Update

Key Takeaways:

• Israel continued its campaign of airstrikes targeting alleged Hezbollah infrastructure and operatives in Lebanon in May, conducting the second-most bombing raids in a single month since the Cessation of Hostilities (CoH) came into effect on November 27, 2024. Israeli military actions in Lebanon’s border regions – including small arms fire, destruction of prefabricated houses, and strikes against bulldozers – continue to hinder the return of internally displaced persons (IDPs) and obstruct reconstruction efforts. As of April 30, 90,020 people remained displaced across Lebanon due to Israeli military action.

• Lebanon held municipal elections over four consecutive weekends in May 2025 – on May 4 (Mount Lebanon), May 11 (North Lebanon), May 18 (Beirut and Bekaa), and May 24 (South Lebanon). Keserwan recorded the highest turnout rate of any district at 60.23% and Beirut the lowest at 21.03%. About one in four races was uncontested, including 68 of 333 in Mount Lebanon, 81 of 289 in North Lebanon, 40 out of 171 in Bekaa and Baalbek-Hermel, and 109 of 272 in South Lebanon.

• Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas agreed on a plan to disarm Palestinian refugee camps and formed a joint committee to oversee the process. The leaders emphasized that Palestinian groups must not engage in military activity on Lebanese territory. The Lebanese-Palestinian Dialogue Committee – formed in the early 2000s and separate from the committee agreed to by Aoun and Abbas – announced on May 24 that disarmament would begin in mid-June in three Beirut camps before expanding to the other nine.

• Lebanon is facing a severe drought with annual rainfall levels dropping by over 50%, leading to critically low reservoir levels at key sites such as Chabrouh Dam in Faraya and Qasaymani Dam in Baabda, and the near-total depletion of the Shamsin Spring. The resulting water shortage is expected to have a significant, negative effect on households and the agricultural sector.

• The Ministry of Labor agreed to a proposal to increase the minimum wage from 18 million Lebanese pounds (LBP) to LBP 28 million. Workers’ unions and syndicates criticized the Ministry’s suggested minimum wage, claiming that it is not sufficient to cover a household’s essential needs, adding that households need between 900 US dollars (USD) and USD 1,000 to maintain acceptable living standards.

• Finance Minister Yassine Jaber signed a USD 258 million World Bank loan to support the public water sector in Mount Lebanon and Beirut. This is the second World Bank loan to Lebanon this year, after the first one was signed in April, worth USD 250 million and dedicated to the electricity sector