Key Takeaways:
- The Israeli military has withdrawn from several regions of southern Lebanon but, as of the date of publication, Israeli troops are holding their positions in several villages and towns, primarily in the eastern sector. Tensions escalated on January 26 – the date on which the transitional phase of the cessation of hostilities (COH) was originally slated to end – as hundreds of displaced residents attempted to return to their villages. Israeli forces killed at least 24 people, making it the deadliest day since the beginning of the CoH. On January 27, the United States (US) announced that the CoH’s transitional phase had been extended through February 18.
- Former Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) Commander-in-Chief Joseph Aoun was elected president on January 9, ending a nearly two-year-long vacancy in one of Lebanon’s top elected posts. Aoun subsequently named then President of the International Court of Justice Nawaf Salam prime minister-designate on January 13. A new government has yet to be formed as disagreements persist over the allocation of ministerial portfolios, with major discussions centered on key ministries such as Finance, Justice, Foreign Affairs, and Interior and Municipalities.
- On January 2, Syria imposed entry restrictions on Lebanese citizens, allowing only those with residency permits or official approval to enter. Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati visited Damascus on January 11, meeting with Syria’s new leadership to discuss border security, the refugee crisis, and bilateral cooperation. On January 23, the General Authority for Land and Maritime Ports issued updated guidance on entry conditions for Lebanese nationals.
- According to Moody’s, GDP contracted by 10% in 2024 and will, under the most optimistic scenario, contract by a further 2% in 2025. Tourism, likely the sector most affected by the war and a key source of foreign currency, has declined during the winter season in comparison with the same period last year.
By Crisis Analytics Team, Mercy Corps Lebanon
