Key Takeaways:
- Israel’s exclusion zone along the southern border, which is part of the 60-day Cessation of Hostilities (CoH), has prevented at least 65,000 displaced persons from returning to their homes, and has imposed movement restrictions south of the Litani river. While some 87% of displaced individuals overall and 80% of residents outside the exclusion zone have begun to return, those who do face significant challenges, including widespread property damage, disrupted public services, and the threat of unexploded ordnance (UXOs). Preliminary assessments report that at least 99,000 housing units have been damaged or destroyed, with extensive damage to water and power infrastructure.
- LCAT estimates that Lebanon’s GDP contracted by 6.4% from the start of hostilities in mid-September through the CoH on November 27. Lebanon’s caretaker economy minister estimated that up to 500,000 Lebanese lost their jobs due to displacement, infrastructure damage and the significant slowdown of services and agriculture. The tourism sector and small businesses will take time to recover. Trade and airport activity will also depend on the resumption of trade and flight routes with Lebanon.
- Humanitarian organizations face cascading challenges as the country grapples with widespread destruction and overwhelmed public services. Ongoing military activity and exclusion zones hinder access to affected areas, while funding gaps to the humanitarian sector persist: the United Nations’ Flash Appeal is currently only 64% funded. The health sector alone suffered over USD 74 million, with many hospitals and clinics out of service. Water infrastructure repairs, estimated at USD 160 million, are critical given public health concerns,
including cholera risks. Meanwhile, the education sector is struggling to get back to normal, while telecommunications damages of up to USD 117 million disrupt emergency services and economic activity. Comprehensive recovery efforts must address these overlapping crises to ensure access to essential services during the lengthy rebuilding process.
- The cessation of hostilities accelerated efforts to elect a president, potentially ending a stalemate that has lasted for more than two years. However, tensions could resurface if opposing political parties perceive Hezbollah as weakened after Israel’s military campaign and Syria’s instability. While intercommunal tensions existed throughout the conflict, they did not manifest or escalate into open confrontations, however, unresolved political disputes and debates over Hezbollah’s armament remain potential flashpoints. Intercommunal tensions may be exacerbated in multi-denominational areas.
By Crisis Analytics Team, Mercy Corps Lebanon
